**US naval deployments to CENTCOM reflect ongoing operations tied to the conflict with Iran, including strike support, maritime security, and deterrence in the Arabian Sea and surrounding waters.** Two carriers—USS George Washington and USS George H.W. Bush—have been active in the region through September and into early October 2026, with the latter reportedly departing for a port call in Thailand by early October, temporarily reducing the count. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group departed San Diego in late September for an extended Middle East deployment expected to last months, positioning it to relieve or overlap with existing forces. This creates a short-term possibility of three carriers as a rotation overlap, similar to the brief April 2026 surge—the first such concentration since 2003. However, sustaining three groups strains Navy readiness amid extended deployments, and official statements emphasize operational security without confirming permanent levels. By late November, standard rotation patterns and force management point to two carriers as the most likely configuration on November 30, consistent with trader consensus at 56%. A single carrier remains possible if departures outpace arrivals, while three or more would require deliberate decisions to extend the temporary buildup amid evolving policy options after the November midterms. Zero or four-plus outcomes reflect lower-probability extremes given current commitments.