Central Bank interventions supplying dollars near open-market rates have sharply reduced volatility in the USD/IRR rate since early October, following a rapid weakening driven by U.S. sanctions, a naval blockade that curtailed oil exports, and high inflation exceeding 70 percent. Traders price the December outcome across a narrow band from 2.5M to 3.5M IRR because ongoing U.S. measures targeting Iran's shadow fleet and financial channels continue to constrain foreign-currency inflows, while Iranian authorities retain capacity for further stabilization steps. Diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran remain stalled without scheduled breakthroughs before year-end, leaving the balance between sustained sanctions pressure and domestic policy responses as the primary variable that could shift the rate outside the current consensus range.