**Traders assign the highest probability (52.5%) to the USD/IRR free-market rate exceeding 2.8 million rials by end-October, reflecting expectations of continued rial depreciation amid tightening US sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast.** Recent Treasury actions targeting Iran's remaining shadow fleet vessels and support networks have further restricted illicit oil exports, which serve as the primary source of foreign currency. Export volumes have fallen sharply due to the naval blockade and related measures, limiting inflows while domestic inflation remains elevated and precautionary demand for dollars persists. Central bank interventions supplying dollars have narrowed short-term volatility but have not reversed the broader downward trend in the rial, consistent with structural pressures from reduced petroleum revenue and capital flows. Market pricing aligns with these near-term constraints on Iran's external accounts.