Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in Yemen has centered on airstrikes and logistical support for Yemeni government forces rather than direct ground deployments into Houthi-held areas. In early October 2026, the internationally recognized Yemeni government launched Operation Dawn of Yemen, a Saudi-backed counteroffensive aimed at retaking coastal territory around the Bab al-Mandab Strait and advancing toward Sanaa, with the coalition conducting hundreds of strikes on Houthi targets including in the capital. Houthi forces have claimed successful repulses of ground advances while retaliating with missile and drone attacks on Saudi cities and airports. Traders assign very low probabilities to regular Saudi armed forces entering Sanaa proper because Riyadh has historically avoided large-scale troop commitments on the ground in northern Yemen, relying instead on air power and Yemeni allies amid high risks of escalation and casualties. Ongoing clashes and any shifts in Saudi operational posture remain the main variables that could alter these assessments.