Les Républicains entered the September 27, 2026, partial Senate renewal with 131 seats and emerged with 124 after indirect voting by local officials across 64 departments, a modest net loss of seven that still left the party as the chamber’s largest single group. Their center-right alliance with the Union centriste et indépendants retained an absolute majority at 187 seats despite limited erosion to the Rassemblement national, which formed its first Senate group of 15. Official group declarations finalized by October 5–6 placed LR precisely in the 121–124 band, with no late shifts from overseas results or affiliation changes. Traders have converged on this outcome at 99.5 percent because the seat count is now fixed by Senate records, leaving only remote possibilities such as unresolved disputes over a handful of affiliations or subsequent resignations to alter the tally before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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