Ongoing U.S. and Israeli military strikes, including the recent killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders, have intensified pressure on Iran’s leadership while sparking widespread protests over economic hardship and governance. These events coincide with a collapsing rial, tightened sanctions, and internal elite divisions, prompting accelerated succession processes and greater Revolutionary Guard influence in decision-making. Despite factional strains and public unrest met with crackdowns, core institutions have maintained cohesion, with U.S. intelligence assessments indicating no imminent collapse. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to regime survival through June 2027, reflecting the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience against sustained external and domestic challenges in prior crises.