Escalating US-Iran military exchanges in 2026 have centered on strikes targeting Iranian Revolutionary Guard assets at Kharg Island and nearby sites, Iran's primary crude export terminal handling roughly 90% of seaborne shipments, without altering sovereignty or seizing infrastructure. Brent crude has traded near $97–$100 per barrel amid tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, reduced transits, and a US maritime blockade that has constrained loadings since July. Iranian officials report continued terminal operations and exports, while trader consensus on Polymarket assigns minimal implied probability to any of the named islands—Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz, or Kharg—changing hands before the resolution date. Key near-term variables include Iran-Oman navigation coordination and potential further US actions against military capabilities rather than territorial occupation.