Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, driven by repeated projectile strikes on tankers and container ships attributed to Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps activity, have produced record incident volumes in early-to-mid October, including six reports on a single day and at least twelve vessels affected in one week. UKMTO has issued multiple warnings (including 174-26 and 175-26) amid a “severe” threat assessment, alongside parallel risks from Houthi operations near Bab el-Mandeb and renewed Saudi-Yemeni clashes. Traders appear to price the <8 outcome highest because the pace of verified reports may moderate in the October 19–25 window absent further major triggers, while still allowing for sustained but not peak activity given ongoing regional hostilities, reduced shipping volumes, and potential tactical pauses. Higher bins reflect upside risk if daily strikes persist at recent levels.