Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) leads the Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial runoff market at 73.5% implied probability ahead of Cadu de Lula (PT) at 25.5%, reflecting trader consensus on the narrow first-round results and latest polling. The October 4 first round produced a near-tie, with Allyson at 36.94% and Cadu at 36.16% of valid votes, advancing both to the October 25 runoff while eliminating Álvaro Dias (PL) at 26.71%. A Quaest survey from October 9–12 showed Allyson at 45% to Cadu’s 42% in the second-round scenario, within the 3-point margin of error, with 83% of voters reporting a firm choice and 17% still open to shifting. Cadu’s association with the PT and outgoing Governor Fátima Bezerra, whose disapproval stands at 55%, alongside Allyson’s record as Mossoró mayor, shapes the contest dynamics in the final stretch.