Recent judicial rulings have eliminated the expected second-round runoff in Rio de Janeiro’s gubernatorial contest. On October 8, the TSE annulled Anthony Garotinho’s 274,411 votes (3.17% initially) due to his prior ineligibility ruling, prompting retotalization by the TRE-RJ on October 10. This shifted Douglas Ruas (PL) to 50.88% of valid votes against Eduardo Paes (PSD) at 44.16%, securing a first-round victory. Paes publicly accepted the outcome and withdrew further challenges after the STF declined to intervene. With no runoff scheduled for October 25, trader consensus heavily favors “Other” as the resolution category, while slim probabilities remain attached to hypothetical Ruas margins that no longer apply under confirmed first-round results.