Recent polling in São Paulo, Brazil’s largest electoral base, shows Flávio Bolsonaro maintaining a consistent lead over incumbent President Lula in second-round matchups, with margins of 8–12 points across surveys from Futura, Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Datafolha conducted in late September. This positioning stems from strong regional support for the Liberal Party candidate following his first-place finish in the October 4 first round, combined with vote consolidation from eliminated right-leaning contenders. Traders assign Flávio a 97.7% implied probability of finishing first in the state on October 25, reflecting São Paulo’s historical tilt toward conservative candidates and Lula’s lower approval ratings there. Late shifts in turnout or endorsements could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited volatility.