**Bolsonaro, convicted in 2025 to a 27-year term for coup-plot charges tied to the 2022 election aftermath, has served roughly one year and currently serves the sentence under house arrest in Brasília on humanitarian/health grounds.** Recent developments have lifted trader-implied odds of full release by March 31, 2027, to 66.5% for “Yes.” Key near-term catalysts include the October 25 presidential runoff, where son Flávio Bolsonaro leads incumbent Lula after a strong first-round showing and broad Liberal Party gains in congressional and state races. Flávio has repeatedly pledged an immediate pardon upon taking office in January 2027. A parallel criminal-review petition before the Supreme Court (STF) is slated for full-court consideration shortly after the runoff by Justice Kassio Nunes Marques, who has signaled concerns over sentence severity and procedural issues; an injunction or partial relief remains possible even before inauguration. Additional routes—congressional amnesty legislation or further STF adjustments—have gained momentum from the right-wing electoral surge and prior congressional overrides of vetoes affecting sentence calculations. House arrest itself already reflects judicial recognition of health complications. While outcomes remain contingent on election results, court timing, and institutional responses, these overlapping political and judicial developments underpin the current market consensus reflected in the 66.5% pricing.