Recent polling averages project the PP and Vox securing 198–212 seats in the November 29 snap election, comfortably above the 176-seat threshold for an absolute majority in the 350-seat Congress. This positioning stems from Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez calling the early vote after parliament rejected government housing decrees amid widespread protests over affordability. Support for the PSOE has declined while Vox has risen sharply to around 18–19 percent, nearly doubling its projected representation from 2023, as the left-wing bloc fragments. The PP maintains a steady lead near 32 percent. Traders’ 78.5 percent implied probability for a PP-Vox majority aligns with these seat forecasts and the normalization of regional coalitions between the two parties.