The Reserve Bank of Australia's September 2026 hike to a 4.60% cash rate target, coupled with persistent inflation above the 2-3% band, forms the core driver of market-implied odds for its November 3 decision. August CPI rose to 4.0% year-over-year while the trimmed mean held at 3.6%, reflecting elevated domestic capacity pressures and pass-through from higher global energy prices amid Middle East developments. The RBA's post-meeting statement retained hawkish language, noting it would tighten further "if needed" to return inflation to target. Split forecasts among major banks—ANZ and Westpac pricing in a 25 basis point increase versus CBA and NAB favoring a hold—along with signs of moderating growth, underpin the 78% market-implied probability of no change, with only modest odds attached to further tightening. The November Statement on Monetary Policy and latest data releases will provide the next key inputs.