Persistent inflation above the RBA’s 2–3% target, with August headline CPI at 4.0% and trimmed mean steady at 3.6%, underpins the 69.5% market-implied probability of no change at the December meeting following the September 25-basis-point hike to 4.60%. Hawkish Board communications, including Governor Bullock’s emphasis on upside risks from energy costs and domestic capacity pressures amid Middle East supply disruptions, support the 23.5% odds of a further 25-basis-point increase while limiting expectations for cuts. Recent Fitch analysis projecting rates held through 2027 and softening labor market data reinforce trader caution, though the September-quarter CPI release on October 28 and November 3 decision will shape the final path before December.