Ukraine’s ongoing martial law, extended through October 31, 2026, continues to bar presidential elections under the constitution, allowing incumbent Volodymyr Zelenskyy to remain in office until a successor is sworn in. Recent statements from Zelenskyy condition any vote on a Russian-guaranteed 60-day ceasefire, an outcome viewed as improbable within the narrow window to year-end. European governments have reaffirmed support for the current leadership amid external pressure for change, while Ukrainian polls show strong domestic opposition to wartime balloting. These legal, security, and political constraints underpin trader expectations that Zelenskyy will retain the presidency through December 2026.