**Ongoing battlefield operations, hardened Russian territorial demands, and stalled US-mediated diplomacy explain traders' near-certainty that no comprehensive peace deal will be signed by October 31.** Russia continues strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and rejects temporary ceasefires in favor of a long-term settlement on its terms, including Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied regions and permanent neutrality. Recent US announcements of an energy ceasefire remain unconfirmed by Moscow and have not halted attacks or advanced broader negotiations. With only weeks remaining, fundamental gaps over security guarantees, borders, and alliance commitments leave insufficient time for the detailed talks, ratification, and implementation required for resolution. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or major battlefield shifts could theoretically alter trajectories, though current trajectories show no such momentum.