Russia's consistent refusal to engage in direct leader-level talks with Ukraine under neutral conditions has anchored trader expectations against a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting by year-end. Kremlin statements emphasize that any bilateral encounter must occur in Moscow and follow Russia's preferred terms for a comprehensive settlement, while rejecting proposals such as sidelines discussions at the G20 or immediate trilateral formats. Recent diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-proposed technical-level trilateral meetings by late October, have stalled amid continued Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and Moscow's insistence on long-term resolutions over temporary ceasefires. Ukrainian officials remain open to mediated leader talks, yet these signals have not prompted reciprocal movement from Russia. The resulting impasse, marked by ongoing hostilities and asymmetric diplomatic postures, underpins the market's strong consensus.