High trader confidence in "No" at 96.3% reflects the Non-Proliferation Treaty commitments of nearly all US allies, combined with longstanding US extended nuclear deterrence that discourages independent programs. Technical hurdles, including uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing timelines, verification requirements from the IAEA, and domestic political constraints make rapid acquisition improbable within the remaining window through 2026. No major ally has announced withdrawal from safeguards or initiated crash programs in recent years. Plausible shifts could still arise from acute regional threats, such as verified Iranian weaponization prompting South Korea or Japan to accelerate efforts, or sudden alliance realignments enabling covert assistance, though even these paths face substantial delays and diplomatic pushback.