The closely balanced trader consensus around a first-round outright victory reflects Cape Verde’s two-round electoral system and the six-candidate field confirmed by the Constitutional Court in late September. Incumbent José Maria Neves secured over 51 percent in 2021 under the PAICV banner, yet the addition of MpD-backed Joana Rosa and several lower-profile challengers raises the prospect of vote fragmentation that could keep the leader below 50 percent on November 15. Recent PAICV gains in the May legislative elections bolster Neves’ position, while the opposition’s internal reorganization under new MpD leadership and the start of campaigning on October 29 introduce uncertainty. Late shifts in turnout among diaspora voters or consolidation behind the main contenders could alter the probability of an outright result before polls close.