**Andrey Gyurov holds an 85% market-implied probability of finishing second in Bulgaria’s October 25 presidential first round, well ahead of other contenders whose odds range from single digits to around 50%.** Recent national polls from late September through early October consistently place incumbent President Iliana Iotova first with 41–48% support among decided voters and Gyurov second at 22–27%, creating a clear gap that has remained stable since the campaign opened. Gyurov, the former caretaker prime minister and ex-Bulgarian National Bank deputy governor running as an independent, benefits from backing by reform-oriented groups and visibility from his earlier interim role. Kostadin Kostadinov of Revival trails further back in third, typically in the 6–11% range. The large field of over two dozen registered candidates and expected turnout near 36–37% reinforce the current ordering, with limited recent events—such as security-related exchanges between the leading tickets—altering the relative positions.