Gordon Zhang, the BC Conservative candidate, holds an 80% implied probability in the Richmond-Steveston riding for the October 24, 2026, provincial election because the seat is open after two-term NDP MLA Kelly Greene opted not to run again, while Conservatives maintain strong momentum from the prior cycle and Zhang’s established local ties through teaching, business ventures, and community fundraising. Bruce Kong (NDP) sits at 15.5% amid an open-seat contest and divided opposition, with Barry Wosk (CentreBC) at 2.6%, Keenan Yang (CanWest) at 2.6%, and Robert Evans (Independent, now withdrawing to back Wosk) at 1.7% reflecting limited individual support and vote fragmentation among non-Conservative options. Recent candidate withdrawals and the proximity to election day have reinforced trader consensus around Zhang’s path to victory in this riding.