Mary Peltola holds the lead in trader pricing for the Alaska U.S. Senate seat because she topped the August top-four primary with 49.5% and maintains a narrow edge in recent polling averages under ranked-choice voting. Polls from Decision Desk HQ and others show her first-choice support near 48-49% versus incumbent Dan Sullivan’s 46%, with strength among independents and voters under 50 offsetting the state’s Republican lean. Sullivan benefits from high-profile Republican support including upcoming events with President Trump, yet trails in fundraising and faces vote fragmentation among three GOP candidates on the November ballot. The race remains closely contested three weeks out, with RCV reallocations and turnout among unaffiliated voters likely to determine the final outcome.