The closely contested Alaska U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has intensified focus on voter mobilization, with polling averages showing margins under 2 points and recent surveys describing the contest as a turnout battle ahead of the November 3 general election. Multiple Republican candidates on the ranked-choice ballot, including a decoy entry, add complexity to first-round participation estimates. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 290K-320K range as historical general-election patterns and ongoing get-out-the-vote efforts by both campaigns point to moderate increases over the August primary's 166K ballots. Late shifts in early voting or weather on Election Day could still alter final participation levels.