The unusually competitive South Carolina Senate contest between Republican Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews drives trader focus on turnout, with recent polls showing the Republican ahead by just 1–4 points among likely voters. This margin represents a departure from the state’s typical double-digit Republican advantages in Senate races, raising the possibility of stronger mobilization among independents, unaffiliated voters, and both party bases ahead of the November 3 general election. Early voting begins October 19, while scheduled campaign events including a Trump rally for Graham could further shape participation rates. The narrow spread between the 1.6M–1.8M and 1.8M–2M bins reflects uncertainty over whether the race’s closeness will produce a modest or more pronounced increase relative to recent midterm and Senate election benchmarks.