Trader consensus on Minnesota's November 3 U.S. Senate election turnout centers on the 2.75M–3.05M range because the state has posted strong midterm participation in recent cycles, including 2.53 million ballots in 2022. A competitive open-seat contest between Democratic nominee Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, combined with record primary turnout exceeding 1.1 million voters, supports elevated engagement without reaching presidential-year levels near 3.27 million. Recent polling showing a narrow race and high early-voting interest further align with these bands, while the absence of a presidential contest on the ballot caps upside relative to 2024.