**The two-party system's structural advantages, including ballot access rules, primary processes, and fundraising barriers, continue to limit independent candidates' prospects in the 2026 congressional elections, supporting trader consensus that zero or one independent will win a seat.** Over 200 independents filed for House and Senate races across dozens of contests, with notable activity in states like Texas, New York, and California, yet historical precedent shows only rare successes, such as long-serving independents who typically caucus with one major party. Recent developments include Democratic withdrawals in states like Nebraska, Idaho, and South Dakota to back independents against Republican incumbents, creating three-way or two-way dynamics in Senate races involving candidates like Dan Osborn in Nebraska and Seth Bodnar in Montana. Polling shows some of these contests as competitive toss-ups, but most independent House bids remain long shots amid record overall candidate volume and open seats. Upcoming November voting and any late shifts in key battlegrounds could still influence final tallies, though the implied probabilities reflect persistent skepticism about broad breakthroughs.