Recent polling averages place both the Texas open-seat contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico and the Alaska matchup between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola in toss-up territory, with margins typically under three points. Texas has drawn record outside spending above $500 million amid Paxton's primary victory and ongoing scrutiny, producing volatile surveys that frequently show single-digit or tied results among likely voters. Alaska's race features ranked-choice voting and established candidates, with RCP averages showing Peltola ahead by roughly 1.4 points in limited recent surveys. These dynamics, including Texas's scale and spending intensity, underpin trader consensus that its outcome is more likely to finish closer on Election Day.