Democrats hold a strong position in Alaska’s Senate and governor races heading into November, with recent polling showing Mary Peltola maintaining a narrow lead or tie against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in the ranked-choice Senate contest, while Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads the open gubernatorial field. Multiple September and October surveys place Peltola ahead in final RCV rounds and Kreiss-Tomkins winning simulated reallocations by double digits, aided by Republican vote-splitting among candidates like Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson. These trends, set against a broader midterm environment, underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic sweep as the top outcome, though the tight Senate margins and RCV mechanics leave room for shifts based on turnout and ranking behavior.