Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte maintains a consistent double-digit polling lead over Democrat Cinde Warmington in the gubernatorial race, while Democrat Chris Pappas holds a mid-single-digit edge over Republican John Sununu in the open Senate contest. This split outcome aligns with New Hampshire voters' recent pattern of supporting divided government across statewide offices. October surveys from YouGov, Saint Anselm College, and others show stable margins with no major shifts in the final month, reflecting Ayotte's incumbency strength among independents and Pappas's advantage in a competitive open-seat environment. Trader pricing on the combo reflects these fundamentals and the low likelihood of sweeps given the separate dynamics in each race.