Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III holds a consistent polling lead over independent Bill Hill in Alaska’s at-large House race, reflecting the state’s structural Republican advantage and Begich’s 2024 victory under ranked-choice voting. Recent surveys, including a New York Times/Siena poll from early October showing Begich ahead by double digits, have reinforced trader consensus around an 86% probability for the Republican nominee. Hill has consolidated much of the non-Republican vote after Democratic withdrawals but trails by 10–15 points on average, limiting his market share near 11%. Low probabilities for Democratic and Libertarian candidates align with minimal support in primary results and general-election polling. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution trigger, with RCV tabulation and turnout among key factors that could influence final margins.