Incumbent Republican Phil Scott faces Democrat Amanda Janoo in the November 3, 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election, with minor-party candidates also on the ballot. Recent polls show Scott leading or within the margin of error, including a State Navigate survey placing him at 46% to Janoo’s 43%. Vermont’s system requires a majority for an outright win; otherwise the General Assembly decides. Scott’s consistent polling strength near or above 43%, combined with low support for other candidates and his historical ability to outperform late-summer surveys, supports trader consensus that one candidate will clear 50%. Campaign spending and endorsements have intensified in the final weeks, yet the race remains rated Likely Republican by most forecasters.