Lula leads the abroad vote market at 68% implied probability ahead of the October 25 runoff, reflecting traders’ assessment of first-round patterns among the roughly 919,000 eligible overseas voters. In the October 4 first round, Lula captured about 47.6% of valid abroad ballots to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 43.5%, prevailing in the majority of reporting countries—particularly larger European communities in Portugal, Germany, France, and the UK—while Flávio performed strongly in the United States and Japan. With other candidates eliminated, the second-round contest narrows to these two; diaspora demographics and the concentration of votes in Europe continue to favor Lula’s positioning, though shifts in turnout or late campaign developments could still alter the outcome before results are certified by the TSE.