Recent polling in Pará, including AtlasIntel and Real Time Big Data surveys from late September and early October 2026, showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 9–10 points in second-round matchups, consistent with the state’s first-round results where Lula captured 49.9% of valid votes to Bolsonaro’s 44.5%. This edge aligns with trader pricing that assigns Lula an 82% implied probability of finishing first in the October 25 runoff. Other declared candidates remain marginal in state-level data, while Bolsonaro’s support draws primarily from right-leaning voters consolidated after the first round. No major late developments have altered the state’s positioning since the October 4 vote.