**Market-implied odds favor a 25-basis-point Selic cut at the Central Bank of Brazil’s December Copom meeting, reflecting consensus expectations for continued gradual easing from the current 13.75% policy rate.** Recent Focus survey results show economists revising their year-end 2026 Selic forecast to 13.25%, pricing in 25 bp reductions at both the November and December meetings, even as September IPCA inflation printed hotter than expected at 0.82% and lifted the 2026 inflation projection to 5.22%. Post-first-round election dynamics, including stronger prospects for fiscal discipline, have supported the easing path in DI futures and digital options markets, though the probability of a 50 bp December move has moderated to around 28%. Cooling economic activity and labor market signals provide room for measured cuts, while above-target inflation and elevated expectations keep larger moves or a pause as secondary outcomes. The November 4–5 and December 8–9 meetings remain key near-term catalysts.