Elevated inflation and the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish shift underpin the 96.9% market-implied odds of zero rate cuts in 2026. September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts and the 2% target, with core measures also firming amid energy and goods pressures. The FOMC raised the federal funds rate 25 basis points in September to the 3.75-4.00% range, and updated projections pointed to a median endpoint near 4.1% by year-end, signaling further tightening likely at the October 27-28 or December meetings. Officials have emphasized persistent price risks over labor-market softening, with futures pricing minimal odds of easing. A clearer disinflation path or sharper economic slowdown could still alter the trajectory before year-end resolution.