Recent FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting, released October 7, underscored broad agreement on the 25 basis point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range and indicated that most participants view another increase as appropriate by year-end, bolstering expectations of limited dissent at the December 8-9 dot-plot meeting. Soft September payrolls of just 29,000 have shifted market focus from an October hike toward a potential December move, with futures and prediction markets pricing an 80-89% chance of a 25 basis point tightening then amid persistently elevated inflation. This data-dependent environment, combined with comments from officials like New York Fed President Williams emphasizing no urgency, supports the 47.5% implied probability of zero dissents while leaving room for one or two if incoming CPI or labor figures alter the consensus path.