**Recent surges in the 10-year Treasury yield to multi-decade highs near 5.37% early in October reflect elevated term premiums amid sticky inflation, geopolitical energy shocks, and heavy Treasury supply.** Yields climbed as Brent crude prices remained elevated above $100 amid Middle East tensions, pushing headline CPI higher while core measures stayed above target. Persistent federal deficits, projected near 6.6% of GDP, combined with robust corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure, have widened the term premium and steepened the curve, with the 2s10s spread near 45 basis points. The Federal Reserve’s September hike to a 3.75–4.00% funds target range and market pricing of additional tightening this year have also anchored front-end rates higher. Key near-term catalysts include the October 14 CPI release, PPI data, and the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, which could clarify the policy path and influence whether yields extend gains or retrace.