Gold prices fluctuated in a roughly $4,070–$4,220 range during the week of October 12, 2026, amid shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations. Hot September CPI (3.7% y/y) and PPI (6.3% y/y) prints mid-week lifted October hike odds to around 30–40% and December probabilities above 89%, strengthening the dollar and Treasury yields and driving an initial pullback toward $4,073. Subsequent comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declining to pre-judge the October meeting eased near-term hike bets, weakening the dollar and supporting a rebound above $4,170. Persistent central bank purchases and ETF inflows provided underlying support, while traders monitored the October 27–28 FOMC decision and any further inflation signals.