Discord’s confidential January 2026 SEC filing with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, followed by the absence of a public S-1 filing through October 2026, has driven the 61.9% implied probability that no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027. Secondary-market marks have compressed to roughly $8–8.5 billion from the 2021 $15 billion peak, reflecting softer consumer-tech multiples, roughly $600–900 million in annualized revenue, and slower monetization progress outside gaming. This reset positions the 11–14 billion bracket as the next most likely outcome at 10.0% while elevating execution risks around SEC review timelines and equity-market conditions. A public prospectus or favorable listing window could still shift probabilities, though base rates for similar delayed consumer platforms favor extended timelines.