Holtec Nuclear's withdrawal of its SEC registration statement on September 25, 2026, after postponing the planned offering amid weak investor appetite for nuclear listings, underpins the 95.3% market-implied probability of no IPO before November 2026. The company had targeted up to a $10.2 billion valuation and $900 million in proceeds via 50 million shares priced at $15–$18, but cited a sharp retreat in equity and nuclear-sector sentiment driven by data-center demand uncertainty, elevated interest rates, and broader macroeconomic pressures. Recent progress on its SMR-300 licensing at Palisades, including the October 2026 Preliminary Safety Analysis Report submission, supports ongoing operations but does not alter the near-term IPO outlook. A rapid reversal in market conditions enabling refiling and pricing within the next three weeks remains a low-probability scenario that could shift odds.