SpaceX’s June 2026 Nasdaq listing at a $1.77 trillion valuation triggered immediate index inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices explicitly declined to relax its profitability and 12-month seasoning screens for the S&P 500. The company posted a $4.94 billion net loss for 2025 and remains unprofitable, creating a structural barrier that keeps implied odds of 2026 entry near 2 percent. Traders price in the low probability of rapid earnings turnaround or rule changes before year-end, reinforced by the firm’s heavy capital expenditures on Starship and orbital infrastructure. Any surprise Q4 profitability or unexpected policy shift by S&P could still alter the outcome, though both appear remote given current fundamentals and index methodology.