**Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 68.5% implied probability for a higher IPO closing market cap due to its accelerated timeline and stronger recent financial momentum relative to OpenAI.** Anthropic confidentially filed its S-1 in June 2026 and now targets a Nasdaq listing near November after an October delay, with reports pointing to a $2 trillion valuation target—more than double its May $965 billion private round. Its annualized revenue run rate reached roughly $65 billion by late July, with Q2 revenue at $11.5 billion and adjusted operating income turning positive, outpacing OpenAI’s metrics. OpenAI, which also filed in June, saw CEO Sam Altman rule out a 2026 IPO in September over AI safety priorities, shifting focus to a potential 2027 debut and private bridge funding near $1.4 trillion pre-money. This sequencing gives Anthropic first-mover advantage in setting a public valuation benchmark amid rapid enterprise adoption of its Claude models, while OpenAI’s heavier losses and later entry introduce greater timing uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s expected roadshow and Q3 results disclosure.