OpenAI’s explicit deferral of any 2026 IPO, driven by CEO Sam Altman’s September statements prioritizing AI safety and alignment work over listing, underpins the 95% market-implied probability of no offering by year-end. The company’s recent $122 billion private round at an $852 billion valuation, plus ongoing talks for at least $30 billion more near $1.4 trillion, supply ample capital and reduce pressure to access public markets quickly. Rapid revenue growth, with annualized run rates approaching $70 billion, further supports staying private. While an unexpectedly swift resolution of safety concerns or sudden equity-market enthusiasm could compress the timeline, the compressed window to December 31 and Altman’s firm positioning make such shifts improbable in the near term.