Anthropic’s targeted $2 trillion-plus valuation for its planned late-2026 Nasdaq listing drives the narrow market-implied lead over SpaceX at current Polymarket odds. The AI developer’s revenue run rate has surged above $65 billion with gross margins near 80 percent, supporting aggressive pricing despite substantial compute commitments and operating losses. SpaceX’s June IPO at roughly $1.77 trillion already set records, yet its post-listing trading near $148–171 per share and integration of prior xAI assets leave room for Anthropic to claim the year’s largest debut if execution holds. Key swing factors include final S-1 disclosures, third-quarter results, and broader risk appetite ahead of the November window.