NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring systems report no known near-Earth asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton atmospheric airburst in 2026, driving the 98.5% “No” consensus. Megaton-scale events occur on century timescales, with the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide at roughly 0.5 megatons remaining the largest recent example; current surveys detect all objects large enough for such energy yields well in advance. Late-year discovery of an undetected impactor remains theoretically possible yet improbable given ongoing optical and radar coverage, while any shift would require revised orbital data or an unexpected close-approach confirmation before December 31.