Trader consensus heavily favors no 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026 at 96.4% implied probability due to exhaustive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and the European Space Agency’s risk lists, which show zero credible impactors capable of delivering that energy this year. Historical bolide data from JPL’s fireball repository indicate such events occur roughly once every 15–20 years on average, placing the annual baseline well below 10%. Recent close approaches by objects in the 10–50 meter range have all missed Earth safely, while optical and radar surveys continue to detect smaller fireballs far below threshold. A late-year discovery of an undetected ~15–25 meter meteoroid on a direct trajectory remains theoretically possible but statistically improbable given current survey completeness for objects above that size.