A record-intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures hitting an all-time high in September, has combined with background anthropogenic warming to push 2026 temperatures near historic highs. Year-to-date global averages rank second only to 2024 through September, while August tied the all-time monthly record and September placed second-warmest, keeping the year on track for a top-two finish according to ERA5 and Copernicus analyses. Traders see the strong El Niño—expected to peak late in the year and release stored ocean heat—as the decisive factor that could elevate 2026 above 2024, though some statistical outlooks without full El Niño weighting still favor second place. Upcoming winter months and final annual datasets will determine whether momentum shifts decisively toward first or solidifies at second.