SpaceX achieved a key milestone with Starship Flight 14 in late September 2026, reaching orbit for the first time and deploying operational Starlink satellites, yet both stages still splashed down without recovery. The Super Heavy booster has demonstrated tower catches on earlier flights, but the upper stage has never been caught or reflown after an orbital mission. Flight 15, targeted for November, will attempt simultaneous booster and ship recovery via mechanical arms, but successful catch, inspection, refurbishment, and reflight of the ship remain unproven and face tight regulatory and technical hurdles. Elon Musk has projected initial ship reflight late in 2026 or early 2027, with rapid full reusability targeted for 2027. These timelines and remaining demonstrations support trader consensus favoring the “No” outcome before year-end 2026.