Tesla’s current robotaxi operations in California remain limited to supervised rides under a charter-party carrier permit in the San Francisco Bay Area, with no CPUC or DMV driverless deployment approvals in place as of mid-October 2026. The company has scaled unsupervised service across Texas and Florida metros using Model Y and Cybercab vehicles, yet California’s separate autonomous vehicle permitting process—plus newly signed rules requiring rapid incident response and U.S.-based remote operators—creates substantial barriers. With roughly 2.5 months until year-end and no filed applications or announced timelines for full driverless rollout, traders see little realistic path to commercial launch by December 31 despite broader FSD software progress.